This is a betting type often used in the white sport because of the odds, which most of the times are not satisfying enough, and they need some small adjustments, with a handicap (or a counter handicap, depending on the case). When choosing this kind of bet, with a handicap for the favorite player, we should take into consideration a number of factors:
- The importance of the tournament
This is an important decisional factor for any kind of bet, from over to games, to type of bets like one set minimum per player. In my opinion this type of bet, should never be played on any type of tournament, and much less on any kind of player.
- The player’s profile
In this chapter, we have to keep in mind the fact that some players are relying a lot on their serves, and choosing a handicap bet on their opponent can be pretty risky. Also, there’s the other aspect of serving, meaning that there can be players who do well when returning, and in case of a match with an opponent who has a pretty weak serve. In this case, the player with a good return will be more prone to winning with a bigger handicap.
- The type of match
Here I want to talk about the matches played based on the rule of the best out of 5 sets. In my opinion, in this kind of matches, the favorite is a bit more prone to losing a set, because the match is basically not half lost, if he fails a set, and this way a sense of ease can appear. The handicap lines are obviously different, compared to the best out of three sets matches, but in some cases, they are unreasonably high. I’ve seen Novac Djokovic’s matches when the handicap odd was 13 games. If you ask me, these extreme lines should better be avoided.
- The handicap lines
I’d like to present here some lines I bet on, almost every time there’s an offer for them. For example: when I’m 99% sure (we can never talk about 100% in bets), I’d rather bet on a tiny handicap of 1.5 games instead of on a simple victory. The odd this way is a bit higher, and the winning chances are pretty similar. The next handicap line margin I often play is 2.5 to 4.5. It mostly depends on the game, but I usually play 2.5 when 1.5 is not available and the odd is at least 1.40-1.50. 3.5 means a victory with at least a break in both sets. I bet on this line when I fully trust the player, he is in a good shape and he plays on a favorable surface, that offers him an advantage against his opponent. 4.5 is basically the upper end of the handicap lines I bet on, and I rarely go above it. That is because 5.5 means that the player should have 2 breaks in a favorable set, and I’d rather play a bit safer and don’t rely on a forced victory. Usually, from 5.5-6.5 higher I prefer betting with a counter handicap, of course, if the offer and the odds allow me.
The handicap bets can sometimes be deceiving, considering the fact that sometimes you need to make some calculations to figure out the favorable situations, the scenarios when your bet will win, and most importantly, how plausible these scenarios are. For example, I’ve seen some matches in the women’s tennis when the handicap lines have risen up to 9.5 games. Personally, I see no reason to place a bet with a 3 odd, that one of the players will only make 2-3 games in a match, so I’ll have no problem in betting a counter handicap in situations like these. On the same topic, have a look on the article where we’ll tell you all about cum sa alegi un pariu pe contrahandicap la tenis.
Our advice is to always analyze the matches through your own mind’s filter, whenever you want to bet on it. You might find some value even for the 5.5 line, the first example that comes in my mind for this being Nadal on clay. His 2018 matches on the red surface made me think twice about the 6.5 counter handicaps, even against Theim. We suggest to never bet more than 5% of the assigned monthly betting account on one single ticket, and if you’re going through a rough patch, keep your calm and never play “on recovery”, this practically being a certain way to lose more money.